We find that 25 war-related deaths or wounded at the village level reduce consumption growth by 9%. However difficult a peace settlement may be to achieve, the policy relevant prescription of our finding is clear: failing to find a settlement has direct negative implications for household welfare. Third, we find that membership of rebel groups substantially increases household welfare, by 41% compared to non-member households. War thus has winners and losers, which we are able to profile with our data. Our results are robust for different household and initial household fixed effects specifications.
Verimp and Bundervoet also explore some interesting methodological and definitional frameworks in their paper, “Civil War and the Welfare of Extended Households: Evidence from Longitudinal Data from Burundi“. Check it out.